Why Foreclosures Won’t Crush the Housing Market Next Year

With the strength of the current housing market growing every day and more Americans returning to work, a faster-than-expected recovery in the housing sector is already well underway. Regardless, many are still asking the question: will we see a wave of foreclosures as a result of the current crisis?

Thankfully, research shows the number of foreclosures is expected to be much lower than what this country experienced during the last recession.

The number of those in active forbearance has been leveling-off over the past month. Of  the original 4,208,000 families granted forbearance, only 2,588,000 of these homeowners got an extension. Many homeowners have once again started to pay their mortgages, paid off their homes, or never went delinquent on their payments in the first place. They may have applied for forbearance out of precaution, but never fully acted on it.

The housing market, and homeowners, therefore, are in a much better position than many may think. Much of that has to do with the fact that today’s homeowners have more equity than most realize.

Equity is growing, jobs are returning, and the economy is slowly recovering, so the perfect storm for a wave of foreclosures is not realistically in the housing market forecast.

While our hearts are with anyone who may end up in foreclosure as a result of this crisis, we do know that today’s homeowners have more options than they did 10 years ago. For some, it may mean selling their house and downsizing with that equity, which is a far better outcome than foreclosure.

Homeowners today have many options to avoid foreclosure, and equity is surely helping to keep many afloat. Even if today’s rate of foreclosures doubles, it will still only hit a mark that is more in line with a historically normalized range, a very good sign for homeowners and the housing market.

Three of the Latest Reports Show Housing Market Is Strong

Three of the Latest Reports Show Housing Market Is Strong

The residential real estate market is remaining resilient as the country still struggles to beat the COVID-19 pandemic. Three separate reports recently revealed how the housing market is still showing growth. Here’s a look at each one.

  1. Ivy Zelman’s Real Estate Broker Survey

The survey explains that purchaser demand remains strong:

“This month’s overall homebuyer demand rating…was easily the strongest sequential gain in our survey history…Strength continues to be led by the entry-level…While high-end demand is less robust in an absolute sense, there has also been relative improvement, with contacts attributing incremental improvement to the stock market’s rebound, record low mortgage rates and luxury customers trading out of high-priced cities.”

  1. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index

The index reveals that builder confidence has returned to levels last seen prior to the pandemic:

“In a strong signal that the housing market is ready to lead a post-COVID economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 14 points to 72 in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI now stands at the solid pre-pandemic reading in March before the outbreak affected much of the nation.”

  1. The Housing Market Recovery Index

This index leverages a weighted average of four key components of the housing industry, tracking each of the following:

Housing Demand – Growth in online search activity

Home Price – Growth in asking prices

Housing Supply – Growth of new listings

Pace of Sales – Difference in time-on-market

It then compares the current status “to the last week of January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.”

The latest results came in at 101, with explaining: “The U.S. Housing Market has recovered from the immediate disruption caused by the COVID pandemic and returned to January 2020 growth levels.”


Bottom Line

Real estate brokers, home builders, and industry data all agree that the housing market has surged back to pre-COVID levels, showing growth, strength, and incredible resilience.


Leisure Village Annual Pass Changes

Annual Pass System Changed for LV’s Safety and Health
LV’s familiar annual passes that enabled relatives and friends of residents and contractors to enter through entrance gates will become useless relics next month. A new computer-centered system will replace them on September 1.  Driven by health concerns surrounding Covid-19, annual passes will reside in an online file accessed only by LV’s Security Staff when a driver at a gate shows a valid driver’s license.  No more paper permits on the dash or in hand; that license must match with the onscreen information.
LVA wants to prevent residents, business people, and staff from the potential danger of physically handling paper forms. Applications can be picked up at the Main gate now and dropped off in a box at the Main Gate, where questions can be answered without personal contact. “This is safer for everyone,” explains Officer Danny Camacho. “And it will increase our security. It will stop people from trading or sharing passes or from driving in without a license.”
More than 3000 paper passes were issued last year. Sgt. Camacho acknowledges it could be more time consuming as the officers log into the computer to check identification. “But if the driver has his license ready, it will be quick,” he adds, particularly as LV’s officers become familiar with the system. There will be no public access to that computer file.
Applications are available now at the Main Gate. They are also available online at, click on forms. The new Annual Pass System will go into effect on Tuesday, September 1.

Beautiful Leisure Village Home for Sale – 8127 Village 8

Welcome to this lovely 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1064 square foot Capri model located VERY CLOSE to the REC CENTER on a greenbelt in 55+ Leisure Village. This was one of the original models and has an extra side entrance to the garage. As you walk inside, you’ll love the open feeling w/ the vaulted ceiling in the spacious living/dining room. This home has been freshly painted & is upgraded w/ plantation shutters & ceiling fans. The eat-in kitchen has plenty of cabinets, white appliances, double-sink & tile flooring. Both bedrooms are nice-sized w/ carpet & mirrored closets. There are 2 full bathrooms, one w/ combination bathtub/shower w/ glass enclosure & the other w/ large walk-in shower. The patio is nice-sized with no neighbors behind & has a block wall w/ trellis for additional privacy. There is a one-car garage w/ laundry hook-ups & direct access. Leisure Village residents enjoy 18 hole – par 3 golf, tennis, heated swimming pool & spa, fitness center, wood shop, ceramics, billiards, lawn chess, shuffleboard, paddle tennis, and a very long list of clubs for every interest. All of this and more within the security of living in a premium guard-gated community. This is the one you’ve been waiting for. Welcome Home!

Please call/text Sharron (805-443-1998) or Meryll (805-405-0411) for showings. We look forward to giving you a tour of Leisure Village!

Mortgage Rates Hit Record Lows for Three Consecutive Weeks

Over the past several weeks, Freddie Mac has reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to record lows, all the way down to 3.03%. Last week’s reported rate reached the lowest point in the history of the survey, which dates back to 1971.

What does this mean for buyers?

This is huge for homebuyers. Those currently taking advantage of the increasing affordability that comes with historically low interest rates are winning big. According to Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“The summer is heating up as record low mortgage rates continue to spur homebuyer demand.”

In addition, notes:

“Summer home buying season is off to a roaring start. As buyers flooded into the market,® monthly traffic hit an all-time high of 86 million unique users in June 2020, breaking May’s record of 85 million unique users.® daily traffic also hit its highest level ever of 7 million unique users on June 25, signaling that despite the global pandemic buyers are ready to make a purchase.”

Clearly, buyers are capitalizing on today’s low rates. As shown in the chart below, the average monthly mortgage payment decreases significantly when rates are as low as they are today.

A lower monthly payment means savings that can add up significantly over the life of a home loan. It also means that qualified buyers may be able to purchase more home for their money. Maybe that’s a bigger home than what they’d be able to afford at a higher rate, an increasingly desirable option considering the amount of time families are now spending at home given today’s health crisis.

Bottom Line

If you’re in a position to buy a home this year, it’s a great time to reach out to a local real estate professional to initiate the process while mortgage rates are historically low.

What to do When Caring for your Loved One Becomes too Much – Free Zoom workshop

What to do When Caring for your Loved One Becomes too Much
Please join us for this ZOOM seminar! We’ll be discussing:
  • Examine how to identify caregiver burnout in yourself
  • Tips for managing your loved one at home


  • Understand when to make a change to your current care plan
  • Discuss care options including in home and placement options
  • Learn about resources for support


Facilitated By:
Kelila Heller, Eldercare Advisor, Owner, Assisted Living Connections
Mark Stelzer, MSW, Alzheimer’s Association
Ellen Henahan, RN, Los Robles Hospital and Medical Center
WHEN: Tuesday, July 21 at 4:00 PM via ZOOM
Register for this FREE Zoom seminar at:
E-mail questions to Senior Concerns at:

What Are The Experts Saying Abut the Rest of 2020?

One of the biggest questions on everyone’s minds these days is: What’s going to happen to the housing market in the second half of the year? Based on recent data on the economy, unemployment, real estate, and more, many economists are revising their forecasts for the remainder of 2020 – and the outlook is extremely encouraging. Here’s a look at what some experts have to say about key areas that will power the industry and the economy forward this year.
Mortgage Purchase Originations: Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry ForecastingMortgage Bankers Association
“The recovery in housing is happening faster than expected. We anticipated a drop off in Q3. But, we don’t think that’s the case anymore. We revised our Q3 numbers higher. Before, we predicted a 2 percent decline in purchase originations in 2020, now we think there will be 2 percent growth this year.”
Home Sales: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
“Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lock down and hence the cyclical low point…Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year.”
Inventory: George Ratiu, Senior Economist,
“We can project that the next few months will see a slow-yet-steady improvement in new inventory…we projected a stepped improvement for the May through August months, followed by a return to historical trend for the September through December time frame.”
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac
“Going forward, we forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain low, falling to a yearly average of 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021.”
New Construction: Doug Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae
“The weaker-than-expected single-family starts number may be a matter of timing, as single-family permits jumped by a stronger 11.9 percent. In addition, the number of authorized single-family units not yet started rose 5.4 percent to the second-highest level since 2008. This suggests that a significant acceleration in new construction will likely occur.”
Bottom Line
The experts are optimistic about the second half of the year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans this spring, reach out to a local real estate professional today to determine how you can re-engage in the process.